Behind the score

How we decode every property.

No black box. Every estimate, MLS row, photo, and AI sentence on PropertiesGPS is built from named public sources, transparent weighting, and assumptions you can audit.

Data Sources

Every signal traces back to one of these primary sources. We cache aggressively for speed but never invent data.

SourceWhat we useRefresh
Lee County Property Appraiser (LeePA)Lee parcel fabric, ownership, just/assessed/taxable values, sales history.Weekly bulk + on-demand parcel lookups.
Collier County Property Appraiser (CCPA)Collier parcel fabric, ownership, just/assessed/taxable values, sales history.Weekly bulk + on-demand parcel lookups.
Lee Clerk Official RecordsLee lis pendens, tax-deed filings, code liens, satisfactions.Nightly.
Collier Clerk Official RecordsCollier lis pendens, tax-deed filings, code liens, satisfactions.Nightly.
Lee Clerk foreclosure auction calendarScheduled foreclosure sales by date (Collier on roadmap).Daily.
Lee County Tax CollectorLee tax-delinquent parcel status, certificate status, amounts owed.Rolling — each parcel re-checked within 24h.
Collier County Tax Collector (colliertax.com)Collier tax-delinquent parcel status, certificate status, amounts owed.Rolling — each parcel re-checked within 24h.
FEMA NFHLFlood zone designations per parcel polygon.Quarterly (FEMA cadence).
Licensed MLS / RentCast feedActive listings, status changes, days-on-market, rental comps.~15 minutes during market hours (per-address cache up to 24h).
Licensed property data providerAVM, sales trend, ownership profile, building permits.On access + monthly bulk refresh.
Google Street View + Lee County GISStreet-level photos, aerial imagery, tax-map images for the property gallery.On access.
NOAA Storm Events DatabaseHurricane, wind, and flood event history by ZIP.Monthly.

Personas & Ranking

Pick a persona — Buyer, Long-term rental investor, Flipper, STR / Airbnb investor, Wholesaler, or Just exploring — and the marketplace re-ranks every list to your primary KPI. The property detail page also reorders panels so the numbers you use most are on top.

  • Buyer: ranks by affordability tier and MAO gap.
  • LTR: ranks by cash-on-cash and DSCR with a vacancy/bad-debt floor.
  • Flipper: ranks by distress + equity + ARV-minus-rehab MAO.
  • STR: ranks by projected STR revenue with a 0.4–0.85× penalty when Rules & Restrictions block STR.
  • Wholesaler: ranks by distress score, equity, and absentee tenure.
  • Explorer: balanced default.

Rules & Restrictions

Three traffic-light signals on every property page — the regulatory landmines that quietly kill Southwest Florida deals.

  • HOA / Condo restrictions: matched against a curated table of known Lee and Collier subdivisions and condo communities (Tarpon Point, Sandoval, Heritage Cove, Pelican Bay, Fiddler's Creek, etc.). Unknown communities fall back to fee-based heuristics and are flagged amber for verification.
  • City STR registration: a city-by-city ordinance table covering Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Fort Myers Beach, Bonita Springs, Estero, Lehigh Acres, unincorporated Lee, plus Naples, Marco Island, Golden Gate, and unincorporated Collier — including registration requirement, minimum-stay zones, and annual cap status.
  • FEMA 50% rebuild rule: combines the parcel's FEMA NFHL zone (A / AE / V / VE / X) with LeePA or CCPA just-value to estimate substantial-improvement risk. If a typical renovation budget exceeds 50% of structure value in an SFHA zone, we flag the elevation-compliance risk red.

Limitations: ordinance datasets are manually maintained and refreshed quarterly; HOA matching is community-level, not unit-level, so condo-by-condo bylaws can differ. Confirm with the city clerk and the HOA management company before you commit.

Live MLS Feed

The Active tab on /opportunities streams live MLS listings via our licensed RentCast feed. We surface list price, days-on-market, status (Active / Pending / Contingent / Sold), MLS number, and the listing brokerage when available. MLS rows render in the same unified card as our off-market and distress inventory, so you can underwrite an on-market deal and an off-market parcel side-by-side without learning two UIs.

Updates flow in roughly every 15 minutes during market hours; per-address responses are cached for up to 24 hours to keep pages fast.

Property Photos

Off-market parcels don't have MLS photos, so we build a gallery from public imagery:

  • Google Street View as the primary curb-level photo (snapped to the nearest panorama within ~150m).
  • County GIS aerial (Lee or Collier) for a top-down view of the parcel and outbuildings.
  • County tax-map images to confirm parcel boundaries and easements.
  • Google Satellite tile fallback using parcel lat/lng when neither Street View nor a GIS aerial is available.
  • Open in Google Maps button for a one-click quick-verify against the live map.

Every gallery has a fullscreen lightbox with pinch-zoom, +/- zoom buttons, keyboard navigation, swipe, and thumbnail strip — so you can inspect the roof, the yard, or the elevation without leaving the page.

Investment Score (0–100)

A weighted blend of five investor-grade inputs. Treat it like a credit score: a ranking signal that helps you compare deals, not a replacement for your own underwriting.

InputWeightWhat it captures
Cash flow projection30%Net rental yield after PITI, HOA, flood, insurance, vacancy.
Downside risk25%Flood zone, special assessments, insurance availability, code liens.
Appreciation trajectory20%Block-level price velocity over 1y / 3y / 5y windows.
Distress / motivation signal15%Lis pendens, tax-deed filings, absentee tenure, equity %.
Financing flexibility10%Free-and-clear status, owner-occupied vs out-of-state, tenure.

Hidden Cost Estimates

Listings on Zillow and Realtor show only PI on a mortgage. Real ownership cost includes four lines they don't:

  • HOA dues: Parcel polygon is matched against known community boundaries; dues are pulled from declarations or estimated by community tier.
  • Flood premium: FEMA zone lookup + typical NFIP / private-market premium for that zone, structure age, and elevation.
  • Wind / hurricane insurance: Florida-specific model: county wind tier + roof age + wind-mit features + year built.
  • Special assessments: Active sewer, paving, and utility assessments cross-referenced against the parcel's taxing district.
  • Tax catch-up: If the parcel appears on the Lee or Collier tax-delinquent list, the outstanding balance is amortized across the next 12 months and added to True Monthly Cost — so the carry reflects what a new owner must actually clear, not just go-forward PITI.

MAO & Insurability Stress Test

Every property detail page exposes a Max Allowable Offer (MAO) ceiling and an insurability stress table. For Buyer personas, MAO is income- and DTI-driven and already subtracts the property's recurring carry (taxes, insurance, flood, HOA, utilities). For Flippers, MAO becomes ARV × 70% minus rehab. The stress test stacks preset adverse scenarios — roof age band slips one tier, flood premium up 30%, wind credits expire, carrier non-renewal — and shows the dollar impact on true monthly cost, affordability tier, and MAO.

STR Revenue Model

Short-term-rental potential is modeled from RentCast nightly comps within a 1-mile radius, occupancy assumptions tuned per submarket, and local STR rules (e.g. Cape Coral allows weekly rentals city-wide; Sanibel restricts STR in most residential zones; the City of Naples enforces a 7-day minimum and registration in most zoning districts; Marco Island permits STR with registration). We surface monthly gross, not net, so you can apply your own cleaning / management split.

Seller-Financing Signals

An owner is flagged as likely to consider creative financing when they meet two or more of: free-and-clear (no open mortgage in records), 10+ years of tenure, out-of-state mailing address, no homestead exemption, and equity above 60%. We don't claim the owner will say yes — we narrow the list of doors worth knocking on.

Seller Motivation Score™

A 0–100 score summarizing how likely an owner is to entertain a below-market or creative-terms offer. Inputs: tenure, absentee/out-of-state address, LLC/entity ownership, no homestead, tax delinquency, active distress filings, price cuts, and stale MLS days-on-market. High-motivation owners bubble to the top of the Opportunities feed and drive Investor Playbook recommendations.

AI Features

We use AI to make the underlying public-records data faster to read — not to invent facts. Every AI feature operates over data we already display elsewhere and links back to the parcel.

  • AI Property Search: Natural-language search across the catalog ("3/2 in Cape Coral under $400k with no flood zone").
  • AI Property Brief: Per-property narrative summary on every detail page, citing the same hidden-cost, distress, AVM, and Rules & Restrictions data shown in the panels. The model is explicitly forbidden from recommending STR income when HOA or city rules block short-term rentals, and surfaces the 50% rebuild rule whenever it applies.
  • AI Acquisition Assistant™ (per property): Follow-up chat grounded in the same brief + snapshot, with inline [c:field] citations you hover to see the exact source value. Follow-up mode reuses the last Q&A as context; conversations save per property and export to Markdown, PDF, or a 30-day public share link.
  • AI Offer Generator (per deal): Inside a pipeline deal, generate acquisition strategies (conventional, subject-to, seller financing, creative). Strategy history is kept for side-by-side comparison with financial deltas.
  • AI Financing Scenarios: Model conventional, FHA, VA, and seller-financed payments on the fly with your own down payment, rate, and term.

AI output is model-assisted and should be sanity-checked against the underlying numbers before you transact.

Deal Pipeline

A private kanban CRM at /pipeline. Save any property from its detail page (or the Investor Decision Bar) to drop it in. Stages: Lead → Analyzing → Offer → Negotiating → Under Contract → Closed / Passed. Attach editable private notes, filter by stage / priority / motivation / owner type, save filter Views, generate AI offer strategies with financial deltas, review strategy history, and export the pipeline (or one deal's notes) to CSV or JSON.

Investor Decision Bar

A five-tile snapshot at the top of every property page — Deal Grade, Cash Flow, Cap Rate, Seller Motivation Score™, and Terms — with a Risk & Rules ribbon underneath. Hover any tile for the definition, calculation, and how to read it. From here you can Save to Pipeline (instant confirmation with an Unsave action), attach an editable private note, or open the AI Acquisition Assistant™.

ARV Estimator

The ARV Estimator pulls sold comps within a tight radius, filters by beds / baths / sqft band, and returns a repaired-value range plus your Maximum Allowable Offer at a configurable margin (default 70% rule minus rehab). Save estimates to your dashboard, revisit them as you gather bids, and copy the number straight into the pipeline deal.

Flood Zone & Insurance

Flood exposure is resolved from the parcel polygon against FEMA NFHL, then bucketed into Low / Moderate / High / Extreme tiers with a $ range for typical NFIP or private-market coverage — factoring structure age, elevation, and, for coastal parcels, the 50% rebuild rule. Try any address at /tools/flood. The resulting monthly premium flows into True Monthly Cost automatically.

Refresh Cadence

Distress records (Lee + Collier): nightly. Foreclosure auction calendar: daily. Tax-delinquent status (Lee + Collier): rolling 15-minute cron, every parcel re-verified within 24h. MLS prices and status: every ~15 minutes during market hours. Parcel fabric: weekly. AVM + ownership: on access (cached 30 days). FEMA flood zones: quarterly. NOAA storm history: monthly.

Limitations

We don't predict off-market sale prices, individual carrier underwriting decisions, hurricane outcomes, or seller psychology. Estimates are estimates — confirm with a local agent, inspector, and insurance broker before you transact. Coverage is currently Lee County and Collier County, Florida; the foreclosure auction calendar is Lee-only today (Collier on the roadmap). Other Florida markets are visible but not yet fully scored.

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